The global pistachio market is facing a high-pressure scenario, marked by the war in Iran and a sustained increase in demand.
Iran, which accounts for around 18–20% of global supply, is projecting a production decline of up to 10–11% in 2025/26, affected by the conflict, drought, and structural constraints. This is compounded by logistical disruptions along key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which have restricted exports.
At the same time, global supply is further constrained as 2026 is a naturally lower-yield year in both Iran and the United States, reducing overall availability even more.
As a result, prices have risen sharply: pistachios reached approximately US$4.57 per pound in March 2026, their highest level in eight years, marking an increase of around 30% since 2023.
Demand surge: the “Dubai chocolate” effect
Tighter supply is coinciding with a recent demand-side phenomenon: the boom of Dubai chocolate—a viral product made with pistachio cream—that has boosted consumption across chocolates, ice cream, and premium products worldwide.
Outlook
The combination of lower production and rising demand is creating a tight and volatile market.
Pistachios are thus consolidating their position as a strategic and increasingly premium ingredient, sensitive to both geopolitical factors and global consumption trends.
