MACAU. The global walnut industry is undergoing a structural adjustment marked by negative margins, excess supply and changing consumption patterns. That was the consensus among industry leaders at the Walnuts Round Table during the 43rd International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) World Congress, where participants agreed that depressed prices are forcing orchard removals across key producing regions, while India and China are emerging as major demand drivers.
In the United States, Bill Carriere, president of Carriere Family Farms, said California has already passed its acreage peak in 2021 and is projecting a 2026 crop of 669,500 metric tons, down 9% from the previous year. Profitability remains the main challenge: with grower prices near US$0.75/lb versus production costs around US$1/lb, many producers are removing orchards without plans to replant.
Chile is also expecting an adjustment. David Valenzuela, general manager of La Invernada, projected the country’s 2026 walnut crop at 165,000 metric tons, down 10% from the previous season, although he highlighted favorable weather conditions and strong fruit quality.
China, meanwhile, remains the world’s largest walnut producer, with 1.6 million metric tons across approximately 500,000 hectares, though expansion of new plantings has slowed. Where the country is showing notable momentum is in exports: shipments of shelled walnuts surged 72.4% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting industrial transformation driven by automation and improvements in sorting and processing.
India continues to consolidate its position as a strategic market. Although official imports declined this season, consumption potential remains strong. The industry is closely watching negotiations to reduce the country’s current 100% tariff on walnuts, a move that could significantly reshape global trade flows.
Beyond supply, the panel placed strong emphasis on the consumer. Freshness and flavor were identified as decisive factors for sustaining demand, particularly amid recurring rancidity issues at retail level. In that context, speakers stressed that walnuts should be treated as a perishable product, with cold chain management, modified atmosphere packaging and shorter storage periods.
On the demand side, trends such as plant-based eating, the food as medicine movement and the rise of GLP-1 medications — which are boosting demand for protein-rich and nutrient-dense foods — were highlighted as growth opportunities for the sector.
The panel’s conclusion was clear: production cuts across several origins could gradually help rebalance the market in 2026/27, creating conditions for a potential recovery in prices after several years of pressure on grower profitability.
