MACAO. — The global pistachio industry is set to face a sharp supply adjustment in 2026, following a record-breaking 2025 that confirmed the category’s structural growth worldwide. That was the key takeaway from the Pistachio Roundtable at the 43rd International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) World Congress, where producers and traders agreed that despite short-term volatility, demand fundamentals remain strong.
Global shipments reached approximately 800,000 metric tons in 2025, representing a 174% increase compared with 2015. However, supply is expected to decline significantly in 2026, mainly due to smaller crops in the United States and Iran.
In the United States, Craig Cohen, COO of Setton Pistachio, reported that the 2025 crop reached 723,000 metric tons, but the 2026 forecast drops to just 350,000 metric tons, a 52% decline, due to flowering issues and high temperatures. Exportable supply is estimated at 355,000 metric tons. Even so, the kernel segment continues to expand, with projected growth of 7% in 2025, while production recovery is expected in 2027, with a crop ranging between 750,000 and 850,000 metric tons.
Iran is also anticipating a difficult season. Behzad Agah, director of the Iran Pistachio Association, projected a 2026 crop of only 130,000 metric tons, impacted by severe heat waves and geopolitical tensions that have complicated exports to Asia. Ending stocks are estimated at 60,000 metric tons.
In Turkey, Muhammet Yeşilyer, trader at Tiryaki, noted that for the first time the country has liberalized imports due to domestic shortages. The crop is currently estimated at 156,400 metric tons, although recent weather events could reduce that figure by an additional 10% to 15%. High domestic prices have effectively brought exports to a standstill.
On the demand side, Europe remains the leading import market, with consumption reaching approximately 195,000 metric tons in 2024 and import dependency exceeding 85%, according to Christian Gasser, CEO of Fruitservice. Spain already has 90,000 hectares planted, although only a fraction is currently in production. Growth continues to be driven by pistachios’ appeal in snacks and premium ingredients.
Meanwhile, India and China are solidifying their roles as growth engines. India has increased pistachio consumption by 334% over the past decade, while China is shifting toward sustained consumption, driven by premiumization, food innovation, and e-commerce.
The industry consensus was clear: pistachios are no longer a passing trend. Their expansion reflects a structural shift in global consumption, although the immediate challenge will be maintaining quality and availability in a tighter supply environment.
