CALIFORNIA, U.S. California’s 2026 almond harvest is coming in below expectations.
Although the official estimate projected the crop at 2.7 billion pounds, yields reported from
the field generally point to a lower figure. The northern part of the state shows the steepest
declines, down 15% to 20% from last year, and Kern County is also coming in lower, while
the west side of the Central Valley reports gains. Kernel sizes are also running smaller, with
even smaller sizes prevalent in the southern valley.
Harvest came early: August receipts topped 400 million pounds, 55% more than the same
month last year. At the same time, carry-in from the previous season was revised down to
470 million pounds, the fourth consecutive season of lower starting inventory.
Demand, meanwhile, remains strong and is being driven by exports. In August, California
shipped 190.1 million pounds, up 20.5% from a year earlier, with exports rising 31% and
shipments to India nearly tripling, while U.S. domestic shipments fell 3.3%. Against this
backdrop, prices for mid- to large-sized kernels rose about US$0.20 per pound over the past
month, and in India prices are running 10% to 20% above last year, driven by Diwali
demand, expensive freight and a weaker rupee.
Looking ahead, the market looks firm but not explosive: high prices are already leading
some buyers in India to substitute cashews for almonds, and a larger crop in Spain could
partly ease global tightness. The next key data point will be the Almond Board of California’s
September position report, due October 13 with updated crop receipts.
Reported from RPAC’s market update (September 10, 2026) and CMB News (October 7,
2026).
