The latest report from the Almond Board of California highlights strong momentum in exports and sales, although logistical risks and weak domestic demand persist.
The global almond market shows mixed performance at the start of 2026, with positive signals in exports and sales, but continued weakness in domestic consumption and ongoing international logistical risks. This is according to the most recent February Position Report from the Almond Board of California, published on March 12, as part of the Nuts Market & Crop Update – Global (March 2026).
From a production standpoint, the 2025 season in the United States remains largely in line with the previous year. Cumulative receipts have reached approximately 2.68 billion pounds, very similar to 2024 levels, reinforcing expectations that the crop will close near 2.7 billion pounds, considering that nearly the entire volume has already been harvested at this stage of the season.
On the commercial side, February shipments showed solid performance, totaling around 241 million pounds, with year-over-year growth exceeding 12%. This momentum was primarily driven by external markets: exports reached approximately 196 million pounds, marking an increase of nearly 24% and setting a record for the month. Notably, India stood out with strong growth—around 60%—while Europe also showed signs of recovery after a weaker start to the year.
In contrast, the U.S. domestic market continues to be the main weak spot. Domestic shipments fell by nearly 20% year-over-year, reaching their lowest level for a February in the past decade, confirming a trend of weakened internal consumption.
Sales figures also provide positive signals. During February, approximately 246 million pounds were sold, representing growth of around 12% compared to the previous year, consolidating a strong start to the year alongside January. At the same time, committed sales for the season show a slight year-over-year increase, reflecting an active strategy by sellers to secure volume amid favorable bloom conditions and attractive pricing for buyers.
Among the bullish factors, the report highlights strong short-term demand and the rebound of key markets such as India, which could support a solid shipment pace in the coming months. Additionally, improved domestic sales toward the end of the period could signal a partial recovery in that segment.
However, significant risks remain. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting global logistics, particularly along key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, forcing cargo rerouting and generating market uncertainty. This is compounded by the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the euro, which could make imports more expensive for Europe and moderate demand.
Overall, the almond market reflects a fragile balance: while exports continue to sustain sector momentum, weak domestic consumption and external factors remain key constraints on short-term outlook, according to the Almond Board of California.
