The macadamia market is showing clear signs of recovery and growth heading into 2026, with significant progress across major producing countries and an expanding global supply, according to the INC Global Crop Update & Outlook report (March 2026).
Based on current estimates, global production — on an in-shell basis — is expected to rise from 341,050 metric tons in 2025 to 392,980 metric tons in 2026, representing an increase of around 15% year-on-year. In kernel basis terms, global volume is also increasing, reaching over 104,500 metric tons in 2026, compared to approximately 89,800 metric tons the previous year.
China continues to consolidate its position as the main driver of growth. Following an estimated crop of around 105,000 metric tons in 2025 (at 10% moisture), production is projected to increase by an additional 10% to 20% in 2026, supported by favorable weather conditions, improved farm management, and new plantations coming into production.
South Africa is showing a moderate recovery after a weak 2025 season, with a preliminary forecast of approximately 95,000–96,700 metric tons for 2026. Meanwhile, Australia is expected to rebound significantly, with a crop estimated at over 59,000 metric tons, following one of its most challenging seasons in recent years.
Other origins are also contributing to global growth, with notable increases in Kenya, Guatemala, Vietnam, and Brazil, reinforcing the expansion trend within the category.
Overall, early indicators point to a market that could move toward a better balance between supply and demand in 2026, following a period marked by production adjustments in several key producing countries.
