The almond industry in California is projecting a 2026 crop similar to or slightly larger than last season, with preliminary estimates near 2.65–2.75 billion pounds. Terra Nova Trading placed its forecast at around 2.66 billion pounds, based on average yields of 1,985 pounds per acre.
If confirmed, this would mark the fifth consecutive year with yields below 2,000 pounds per acre, reflecting structural challenges linked to climate conditions, water availability, and aging orchards.
From an agronomic standpoint, bloom progressed rapidly during February and March under mostly warm and dry conditions. Blue Diamond Growers reported temperatures close to 80°F in parts of the San Joaquin Valley, along with a fast transition into petal fall and early nut development stages.
However, some rainfall, wind, and cloudy periods during bloom raised concerns about pollinator bee activity and potential impacts on nut set, particularly in areas of the Sacramento Valley.
On the commercial side, international demand remains strong, especially from India, Europe, and Asia, while the industry awaits new official USDA estimates in the coming months.
