CALIFORNIA, U.S. California’s walnut crop will be considerably smaller this year. The USDA forecasts 2026 production at 680,000 short tons, down 16% from 809,000 short tons in 2025, from roughly 150,140 hectares of bearing orchards.
The decline is mainly due to lower nut set. The USDA survey, which covered 1,498 trees in 749 orchards between July 20 and August 29, found that the average number of nuts per tree fell 18.1%, from 972 to 796. By variety, Chandler fell 19.4%, Tulare 25% and Howard 2.3%. On top of that, the industry entered the new season with virtually no inventory: as of August 31, shipments and committed sales exceeded available stocks by 13,200 short tons.
The market reacted quickly. After the crop estimate was released, offers for California walnut kernels rose more than US1.00 per pound on key grades, and JL Chandler in-shell was quoted about US0.40 per pound above previous levels, marking the end of several years of oversupply and discounting. Demand also got off to a strong start: in September, in-shell shipments rose from 2.5 to 5.1 million pounds, and kernel shipments from 9.4 to 15.5 million pounds compared with the same month in 2025.
Uncertainties remain. The harvest of Chandler, the main variety, is only just beginning, with highly variable yields and quality according to early reports. Market views are also divided: some believe the USDA estimate could exceed actual volumes, while others point out that past estimates have often underestimated the final crop. For now, California kernel prices are expected to stay firm or keep rising over the next four to six weeks, especially for Chandler light halves and quarters, although an upward revision of the crop or weaker demand could slow that trend.
Reported from FreshPlaza (October 8, 2026) and CMB News (October 9, 2026).
